Short answer: It’s normal. Advertisers spend their biggest budgets in the fourth quarter and start the new year with small budgets, so fewer buyers compete and prices fall, often 20% to 30% below the yearly average in the first quarter.
What happens
Contents
hide
Ad prices are set in auctions. In October to December, retailers and brands push holiday campaigns and bid hard. On 1 January many of those budgets end, new yearly budgets are not fully running yet, and auctions get thinner. The same traffic simply meets fewer buyers.
What you can do
- Compare year on year, not month on month. January 2027 should be compared with January 2026.
- Lower floors temporarily if they were raised for Q4, so you don’t lose fill.
- Use the quieter months to test layouts and partners, when the risk is lower.
- Grow traffic that keeps value all year, such as evergreen guides.
See AdSense CPM rates 2026 for seasonal ranges and check what each month should earn with the ad revenue calculator.
Have an ad ops question?
Ask it anonymously. Selected questions get a full answer on bannerTag.
Ask AdOps →
